NFL 2015

[The G Man]

Yeah, but what does that mean in the NFL though?

There are no latin leagues to scout, no asian leagues, no farm systems... IMO, and I may be completely off my rocker here, but resource allocation in the NFL is FAR less complex than in baseball.

Now, that's not to say that an outside perspective couldn't serve to trim the fat where necessary, as well as open some eyes to things that need serious addressing. As I said, why not give it a try? Nothing else seems to be working. Maybe DePodesta will be the voice of reason in the war room when they get ready to flush their first round pick down the shitter, tell them fuck no, why, and what they should really do.

In the article you linked to (haven't finished out yet, got caught up at work), the reactions the author listed early on were more right than wrong. That's my only thing about the Moneyball aspect of it. "Advanced metrics" on an individual in football are not only damn near impossible to attain with any degree of accuracy and/or certainty, but they'll never work in football like they do in baseball.

But hey, it's an incredibly bold approach. I'm actually very interested in seeing how it all shakes out. I see no revolution/revelation on the horizon, but that doesn't mean don't cook up a huge fucking pot of spaghetti and see what happens. Especially with a franchise that has become as big a laughing stock as the Cardinals ever were under Bill Bidwell regime.

I probably wasn't clear but I meant managing the cap, deciding when to extend contracts, etc. For example, the top seven teams in dead cap money in 2015 were NO, Mia, Chi, SF, TB, Bal, Atl.
None of the top nine in unused cap in 2015 made the playoffs, either. Only one of the six players with the biggest cap hits is playing for a playoff team (Charles Johnson, CAR). Suh will have a cap hit of $28.6M in 2016, $5M more than any player in 2015, unless Miami restructures his contract and it's only going to be year #2 of the contract. Brees, Rivers and Eli are all old QB's with bigger hits than anybody this year. Their contracts will have to be restructured ito avoid getting cut.

Managing an NFL team is much more than evaluating talent and DePodesta has the ability to do it well once he quickly climbs the learning curve.

[jon abbey]

I think the sabermetric frontier in football is somehow figuring out how guys on other teams would fit into yours, and trying to scoop them up cheaply. obviously every GM ever has tried to do this, but maybe somehow all of the data available now (so much more than even 5 years ago, I think) can help.

[Mo Noyz]

But how? That's my main question. Are silly and incomplete PFF stats and ratings really going to help in a meaningful way?

[Mo Noyz]

I probably wasn't clear but I meant managing the cap, deciding when to extend contracts, etc. For example, the top seven teams in dead cap money in 2015 were NO, Mia, Chi, SF, TB, Bal, Atl.
None of the top nine in unused cap in 2015 made the playoffs, either. Only one of the six players with the biggest cap hits is playing for a playoff team (Charles Johnson, CAR). Suh will have a cap hit of $28.6M in 2016, $5M more than any player in 2015, unless Miami restructures his contract and it's only going to be year #2 of the contract. Brees, Rivers and Eli are all old QB's with bigger hits than anybody this year. Their contracts will have to be restructured ito avoid getting cut.

Managing an NFL team is much more than evaluating talent and DePodesta has the ability to do it well once he quickly climbs the learning curve.

OK, we're talking about two different things. You're simply stating you think he'll make a good NFL GM. That's fine. It will be interesting to see how his skills transition.

Cleveland has a ton of cap room this offseason, from what I've heard.

[jon abbey]

But how? That's my main question. Are silly and incomplete PFF stats and ratings really going to help in a meaningful way?

if I knew, presumably the Browns would be hiring me instead of DePodesta.

also if it's anything like baseball, there are plenty of proprietary stats that aren't public that teams use. one thing that could maybe be really insightful in football is SportVU, which has been interesting in basketball, maybe that could be adopted to learn about football too? here is an article from a few years ago I found on a quick google:

http://grantland.com/features/the-21st- ... all-games/

[Mo Noyz]

Cool. I'll have to check that out during lunch.

[The G Man]

Better metrics for evaluating talent isn't where analytics is most useful in football. A player's VAR fluctuates wildly compared to other sports because of the injury aspect of the NFL. For non-skill positions, the PFF approach to rate players, which is more qualitative than quantitative, is superior to any statistically based approach.

There is so much error involved in evaluation of college players (e.g. studies have shown that good GM drafters in the past aren't much better than league average in the future) that the most important part of a GM's job, IMO, is structuring contracts and allocating cap # to all of the positions on the roster.

[Mo Noyz]

The pro game is such a different animal that it's nearly impossible to project how college players will make the transition.

It's really akin to a baseball player jumping from AA to the bigs.

[The G Man]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfceast/post/_/ ... rs-to-hgtv

I like Kirk Cousins after reading thia and agree about Shake Shack.

[Mo Noyz]

I'm certainly not a Lovie Smith apologist, and don't consider him a great HC, but his firing by Tampa Bay last night is somewhat confusing. Two seasons to turn around a woeful organization? I know they kind of fell apart towards the end of the season, but he had them playing well enough for most of the season. And now Winston gets to play his rookie season all over again next year with a new coach and system?

Dumb...

[Captain Hate]

I've been one of Lovie's biggest detractors and it seemed like he was doing okay, albeit on a team that I pay almost no attention to although Jameis produced a bump up on that. I honestly don't know what they were expecting that he didn't deliver.

[Mo Noyz]

I'm actually glad to see you post that. I've been easier on Lovie than you over the years.

Pagano is retained by the Colts, but Lovie gets shitcanned?

[bostontricky]

I'm kind of optimistic on the Browns hiring DePodesta.

I'm waiting for the Lions to follow in a similar vein and hire Ruben Amaro Jr.

Nags must be in utter despair over the Megatron retirement rumors.

[jon abbey]

Ruben Amaro Jr. actually has a new job, and it's almost as funny as Lions GM. I will not ruin the surprise and will let people google for themselves...

[The G Man]

Ruben Amaro Jr. actually has a new job, and it's almost as funny as Lions GM. I will not ruin the surprise and will let people google for themselves...

Maybe his brain wants to take a rest.

[Mo Noyz]

I'm kind of optimistic on the Browns hiring DePodesta.

I'm waiting for the Lions to follow in a similar vein and hire Ruben Amaro Jr.

Nags must be in utter despair over the Megatron retirement rumors.

From the NFL.com story:

"One unnamed former player told Foster that playing for the losing Lions can sap the joy from football.

"Playing in this city takes all the love out of the game," he told Foster. "All the cash and all the records means nothing. It beats you up.""


Surprising and unsurprising at the same time. I actually don't think it has anything to do with playing for Detroit. I think he's physically beat up to the point where he just can't see pushing himself any further. He's turned into an injury report HOF'er, and we've seen a physical decline in his play the last couple of seasons.

[MRS]

Okay, so I'll take:

KC -3/-170
PIT -3/-140
MIN +5/+190
WAS -1/-120

[Harold Baines]

Gase to the Dolphins. Last chance, Tannehill.

[Captain Hate]

Why would Chuckie return to coaching when he makes a shitload of money making dumb statements. Andy Reid and Les Miles prove you can be an absolute dunce at clock management and still be considered an excellent head coach.

[jon abbey]

pretty sure the Jets could have done a better job than the Texans are.