MLB Hot Stove 2012-2013

[bostontricky]

[jesus marion joseph]

Bobby V looks to be on his way to City Hospital in that first pic.

[bostontricky]

John Farrell returning to Boston to manage the Red Sox. I was going to post last night about whether the difference between Farrell and Brad Ausmus (or Tony Peña) would justify the Sox giving up whatever amount of talent: looks like the talent was Mike Aviles (and there's chatter the Sox might receive Adam Lind), so giving up a player of that caliber instead of a block of untapped talent works for me.

[Harold Baines]

Marlins fire Ozzie.

[surfer]

A's decline option on Stephen Drew. Raising this intriguing possibility:

http://www.ibabuzz.com/athletics/2012/0 ... bled-list/

which would solve the big problem we have in the most elegant way possible.

[Mo Noyz]

We plucked Chris Volstad up on waivers!!!

3 wins last year. $3 million dollar contract.

Instead of letting him clear waivers and getting him for far less.

Very "next level" thinking on Moore's part.

[Harold Baines]

White Sox with a minor surprise in re-upping Peavy for two years with an option at a reasonable price. They also picked up Gavin Floyd's option, affordable at $9.5 million. Solid moves before free agency to have the rotation locked up.

Royals take a flier on Santana.

RIP Pascual Perez.

[Enforcer]

Not sure where this belongs, but here goes. An OUTSTANDING piece, imo: http://updates.deadspin.com/post/347809 ... that-being

[Mo Noyz]

Royals take a flier on Santana.

Of course, here that is known as "we just picked up our Opening Day starter".

I'm pretty sure that David Glass better hire a Blackwater security detail if he and Moore don't shore up the rotation this off season with that extra ASG windfall.

In the decade I've followed this team I have never seen the entirety of the fan base so close to spontaneous combustion as they are right now. If this and resigning Guthrie is as far as it's going to go*, they may need to deploy National Guard troops to the Truman Sports Complex in order to protect Kauffman Stadium.


*and I'm almost certain this is EXACTLY all that they will do. But, I won't bore you with the details.

[surfer]

Not sure where this belongs, but here goes. An OUTSTANDING piece, imo: http://updates.deadspin.com/post/347809 ... that-being

Excellent article, thank you for posting that Larry.

"Statistics can’t replace good writing, but it can expose the bad, and sabermetrics represented a direct threat to the bad writers who had gotten away with being bad for far too long. These were the writers who used the same old false narratives to reach the same old misguided conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . a lot of those pundits made their money on that margin of uncertainty in sports, yammering about heart and grit and all that ineffable crap that was never so ineffable that a hack couldn’t write 500 words about it for the early edition. And so they remained in the dark, stubbornly entrenched, missing out on a new way to analyze the game they were paid to follow."

Exhibit A, Bruce Jenkins brings the crazy: http://www.sfgate.com/giants/jenkins/ar ... 991756.php

[Mo Noyz]

Interesting.

Surely there is a common ground.

Or does the "eye test" no longer have any validity in baseball?

[Enforcer]

It definitely does, Mo. The author of the piece Surfer posted is just writing a bunch of selective horseshit. No team relies 100% on stats or 100% on "eyes." The Giants have people on their payroll who analyze data, too.

It's a straw man argument, but as always, the sensational approach generates the website hits.

[jon abbey]

yeah, if you stick a hundred percent to the 'eye test', you might be Tim McCarver, and no one wants that (except maybe the paychecks).

baseball I think has built a pretty good balance since Bill James between scouting and sabermetrics, basketball still has major issues though. it's such a fluid and interactive sport that it's even hard for people to really agree on the value of something like team offensive rebounding (the Celtics have stopped trying to do this almost totally in recent years in favor of getting back on D as much as possible, where some 'experts' still consider it maybe the most important component short of outscoring the other team) or efficient scoring (something I think has become overrated by quite a few people in recent years). I think the clubs have more advanced and sophisticated stats than the public does, and that will hopefully improve in the near future, but for now a lot of basketball stats are flat out wrong/misleading to the point of uselessness IMO.

[Enforcer]

I'm with you on NBA stats, Jon. I've been arguing for a decade that the "efficiency" stats for offense and defense are misleading in the NBA. It's so hard to value pace and what it means to a team's numbers. And it gets even less relevant in the playoffs, when fast-paced teams are more effectively slowed down by the opposition.

I remember arguing this shit with Mone and Gordon years ago and brutally owning them on a Phoenix Suns discussion in particular.

Hoping to lure his old buddies back to the forum with cheap shots since they hardly post here anymore,
Enforcer

[jon abbey]

exactly, which is why for instance the Iverson/Mutumbo Sixers at their peak were very good despite Iverson being so "inefficient". the better your D is, the less efficient your team's O needs to be, and I think the more valuable a guy like Iverson at his peak or Melo can be. wrong thread for hoops, though...

[Enforcer]

NATE SILVER FTW, MOTHERFUCKERS. #science #data

[jon abbey]

to be fair, as someone said, if you had just guessed "same way the state went in 2008" without any data, you would have gotten 48 of 50.

[surfer]

NATE SILVER FTW, MOTHERFUCKERS. #science #data

-- Noise-cancelling headphones wear Nate Silvers. - @petridishes

— “Results ask Nate Silver if they’re significant.” — @collision

— “Nate Silver's samples have only a median and a mode. Because no number would be mean to Nate Silver.” — @dilefante

— “Nate Silver can recite pi. Backwards.” -@smedette

— “When Nate Silver goes out to eat, his tips alway accurately correspond to the quality of the service.” — @benhuh

— “When Nate Silver asks you, ‘Wanna make a bet?’ the correct answer is no.” — @perko

— “There are no imaginary numbers, only ones Nate Silver hasn't acknowledged yet.” — @tbq_

— “Nate Silver can divide by zero.” — @jkfecke

--- Nate Silver knows how many times the cannonballs will fly before they are forever banned. @aatishb

--- Outliers exist because they're hiding from Nate Silver. @nerdychristie


from: https://twitter.com/search?q=%23natesil ... s&src=hash

[Mo Noyz]

Those are fucking awesome, Surf.

[surfer]

Getting way way off topic here, but David (who once said he pitted his CDs against each other in a 64 seed NCAA style tournament) might appreciate this. Along similar lines, a lesser known Nate Silver blog called The Burrito Bracket:

http://burritobracket.blogspot.com/

On a related note, A's resign Bartolo Colon. Commence self-loathing