NFL 2014

[jon abbey]

Scott, you probably know I stopped betting on all sports decades ago (I sucked at it and it was messing up my enjoyment of them), and especially not with people who know decidedly more than me about a sport, but if I am reading your comments here correctly, I would definitely take the combo of Seattle and Baltimore to outscore New England and Carolina this weekend in a wager for absolutely nothing. are we on?

[The G Man]

Btw isn't Wild Card weekend usually a giant turdfest for the GFL? I was thinking back to the game where Warner and Rodgers had an incredible shootout being the only game that weekend that didn't suck maximum cock. The only game I watched this weekend was the Bengals losing to the Colts and that was a humongous waste of time. I know that Goodellspeak is incapable of learning from anything that will lessen the amount of games even if it improves the quality of the overall product; a concept to which he's completely autistic. But maybe the fans should start staying away in massive numbers; oh who am I kidding, they'll always show up like fucking idiots.

If the NFL adds two more teams to the postseason, the likelihood of the best team winning the SB actually goes up! That's mostly because only the #1 team in each conference will get a bye. The top seeded teams could possibly play 7th or 8th seeds in the second round, another edge. Neil Paine wrote a long winded post at 538 about how a 14 team postseason maximizes the chance of the best team going into the playoffs emerging with the SB ring.

[Mo Noyz]

Scott, you probably know I stopped betting on all sports decades ago (I sucked at it and it was messing up my enjoyment of them), and especially not with people who know decidedly more than me about a sport, but if I am reading your comments here correctly, I would definitely take the combo of Seattle and Baltimore to outscore New England and Carolina this weekend in a wager for absolutely nothing. are we on?

I'm sure you would. So would I.

Not sure how you came to a conclusion that I'd feel differently.

[jon abbey]

I thought you said that BAL had no chance and CAR had a chance, but ok, we're on the same page then.

[Mo Noyz]

If the NFL adds two more teams to the postseason, the likelihood of the best team winning the SB actually goes up! That's mostly because only the #1 team in each conference will get a bye. The top seeded teams could possibly play 7th or 8th seeds in the second round, another edge. Neil Paine wrote a long winded post at 538 about how a 14 team postseason maximizes the chance of the best team going into the playoffs emerging with the SB ring.

So the number one seed is the best team, with the rest of the teams being an annoyance that could play one hot game and keep them from their destiny? If the number one seed is the best team, then it shouldn't matter whether there is one team with a bye, or two.

Momentum and timing play as big a role as anything when it comes to postseason play. The preordained "best team" is more myth than reality.

[Mo Noyz]

I thought you said that BAL had no chance and CAR had a chance, but ok, we're on the same page then.

After second thought, you're on. I think the Patriots are going to roll up the score on that nonexistent Ravens secondary, and Carolina's defense will keep the score close.

[The G Man]

If the NFL adds two more teams to the postseason, the likelihood of the best team winning the SB actually goes up! That's mostly because only the #1 team in each conference will get a bye. The top seeded teams could possibly play 7th or 8th seeds in the second round, another edge. Neil Paine wrote a long winded post at 538 about how a 14 team postseason maximizes the chance of the best team going into the playoffs emerging with the SB ring.

So the number one seed is the best team, with the rest of the teams being an annoyance that could play one hot game and keep them from their destiny? If the number one seed is the best team, then it shouldn't matter whether there is one team with a bye, or two.

Momentum and timing play as big a role as anything when it comes to postseason play. The preordained "best team" is more myth than reality.

I'm only saying that the #1 team is more likely to be the best team than the #2 team or the #3 team, etc, not that it's always the best team. Expressed differently, on average the better of two teams is more likely to be the higher ranked of the two. If you only accept that, then a 14 team playoff with two byes will produce more meritocratic outcomes than a 12 team playoff with four byes.

That said, the best team is much more likely to win the championship in the NBA than the NFL no matter how the playoffs are set up.

[Mo Noyz]

I think folks may be overthinking it a bit, Gordo.

The number one team is always going to play the lowest seed. Adding another unworthy team may help their chances of making the championship game a tiny bit, but they'll still likely be playing a highly seeded team for the conference championship. I can't see how one more bad team and one less bye in the mix changes that.

[The G Man]

I think folks may be overthinking it a bit, Gordo.

The number one team is always going to play the lowest seed. Adding another unworthy team may help their chances of making the championship game a tiny bit, but they'll still likely be playing a highly seeded team for the conference championship. I can't see how one more bad team and one less bye in the mix changes that.

It's not just that, it's that the #2 team loses it's bye, increasing the odds that the #1 team plays a team other than #2 for the conference championship.

If you are arguing the effect is small, I agree. As long as it's not negative to the #1 team, then the NFl can add a playoff game ($$$) and not suffer a loss in integrity, not that they care about that one whit!

[Mo Noyz]

Yeah, I just see the overall effect as nearly inconsequential.

And what we get is more sub-par postseason football.

[The G Man]

Yeah, I just see the overall effect as nearly inconsequential.

And what we get is more sub-par postseason football.

Too bad you don't follow the NBA. I's season is much more interesting than the NFL this year and the new commissioner is much better than the previous one.

[walto]

As we're talking about betting, I'd like to use my beginner's luck while I have a chance. I think the Colts are going to beat the Broncos (I think they're 7 pt underdogs) and then beat the spread (whatever it ends up being) against N.E. (though, sadly, probably not win the game)--all assuming no key players go down. This is after the Pats absolutely took Indy apart a few weeks ago.

What kind of wonderful cash offers will these (outrageous!) predictions get me among the cognoscenti here?

FWIW, I also think the Patriots will destroy Baltimore and Seattle will win the whole deal.

[Captain Hate]

If I were a betting person I'd agree with the Hornster but that's why they play the games.

[walto]

Well Gordo IS a betting man. Maybe I can find some action in those parts?

[Mo Noyz]

Colts secondary is absolutely no match for the Broncos receivers.

Gordo, trust me brother. I've tried to get back into the NBA. Wynton and I watched several Thunder games last year, and the year before. I loved the old style of play I grew up watching in the 70's through 90's. The game these days is too chaotic and sloppy for my tastes. They dribble the ball down the court, shoot a quick and haphazard three, and then something akin to a middle school music class playing Albert Ayler ensues. All of which seems to end in a basket half the time, and a foul the other half of the time.

It's entertaining to a degree, but I get bored with it quickly.

I have heard nothing but good things about Silver, though.

[The G Man]

I'll be rooting for the Broncos anyway so I'll bet a cd with as many people who want to bet the other side that they cover -7. That's the current line at all of the major Vegas books. My offer to bet is only good for today.

[walto]

I'm in, Gordon!

[walto]

Want to make it two CDs, not to exceed $45 including shipping?

[The G Man]

Want to make it two CDs, not to exceed $45 including shipping?

OK.

[Mo Noyz]

walto, lay off the peyote, brother!