Fantasy Baseball

[Borat Pri Hagafen]

Please don't keep Guthrie over Peavy and/or Felix, because I really don't feel like spending that airfare to come give you a smack if you do.

[surfer]

Please don't keep Guthrie over Peavy and/or Felix, because I really don't feel like spending that airfare to come give you a smack if you do.

Ehhh, you're right. Peavy's numbers are actually better than I thought, though Guthrie is pretty close to identical to Felix. Peavy's 3 weeks on the DL with elbow issues scare me too.

Guthrie 3.57ERA 10-11 186.2IP 170H 74R 22HR 57BB 119K .239AVG 1.22WHIP
--Felix 3.18ERA, 9-9,, 175.1IP, 165H 62R 15HR 68BB 157K .251AVG 1.33WHIP
Peavy 2.69ERA, 9-9,,, 153.2IP, 126H 46R 15HR 49BB 155K .225AVG 1.14WHIP
Santana 3.31ERA 14-5 184.2IP 163H 68R 18HR 43BB 183K .233AVG 1.11WHIP

Maybe I'll throw em all back in the pond.

Who would you pick? If its a given I keep Lincecum/Hamilton/Teixeira. Maybe I'll just go with Holliday. Young? Too many Rangers?

edit: Santana's numbers are much better than I thought. Though it makes me ill having him and his Honest Abe beard on my team.

[Borat Pri Hagafen]

I tend to think hitters are better keepers, so Holliday, unless he's not going to be a Rockie next year. If it's a pitcher I'd rank Peavy first and Felix 2nd among your options (not counting Lincecum).

[surfer]

OK Thanks.

[Borat Pri Hagafen]

My season ends tragically in the semi-finals, losing 5-4-1. Was 5-5 until Granderson hit that HR tonight, but I lost the tiebreaker anyway. This guy had David Price on his roster virtually all year, WHIP was one of the few categories up for grabs this week, and the guy pitches 5 1/3 innings allowing 3 baserunners. Game, set, match. Lost the week by .004 in OBP, .03 in WHIP; winning either would've been enough.
Oh well. At least the Chargers won.

[surfer]

So listen to this:

In the last 11 weeks of the season, I go 10-1 in head-to-head matchups, but end up losing in the first round of the playoffs 12-10 to a team I beat twice this year, and then lose in the consolation round and end up in 6th place, after finishing the regular season in 3rd.

Is that not Athletics-esque or what?

[crawjo]

I'm going to finish in second place in a 16-team league. I'm too far behind the leader and too far ahead of third place for it to be any different. I was hoping to break through this year, but Ellsbury's second-half slump, coupled with injuries to Bedard, Duchscherer, and Chamberlain from my rotation (as well as Guthrie at the end there, though that was expected) killed my hopes, as I slipped too far off the pace in wins and stolen bases to keep up with the league leaders.

Still, second place isn't bad for a team that didn't have a single starter reach double digits in wins. In fact, my leader in that category, Ted Lilly, was traded away back in July. Now my rotation is Baker, Shields, Bush, Morrow and Eveland.

My best draft pick was probably snagging Mark DeRosa in the next-to-last round. I expected him to be a utility guy but he ended up being my regular second baseman for most of the season.

[bostontricky]

We had our final trade deadline September 1, which shook out the tree in a hurry: we went from a ten-and-a-half team race to a four-and-a-half team race in about a week and a half. Trouble is, I'm the half team.
We've got the two teams people thought would be there in the end, the two teams that bulked themselves up over and beyond anyone else, and me, who put lipstick on a pig as best I could.

A month ago, I missed out on three or four trades all in one day; somebody's co-owner shipped off Orlando Cabrera and Alex Rios (both expiring contracts) before I could confirm a trade with the guy, missed a Beltre for Figgins deal due to missed communications by the other owner, and engineered a three-way trade which would have landed me K-Rod for King Felix, but one of the guys pulled out at the very end.

So I'm sitting there with a team of overpriced or market value guys for next year, and out of the blue, the team I'm fighting for fourth (who at that point was fighting for first) offers me Ervin Santana ($5), Sonnanstine ($4), and Milton Bradley ($5) for Matsuzaka ($25), Felix ($30) and Vlad Guerrero ($33). Thinking this not only will help me down the road but might actually help me out for the remainder of this season as well, I quickly agree to the deal.

So the final pickup rolls around on September 5, I've got the third pick and grab Brandon Wood. I get a notion to flush out the remainder of the pitching staff (Pettitte and Greg Smith), trade Bradley for Mark Buehrle ($2), Torii Hunter (expiring) and George Sherill ($10), and move Sherrill for Dana Eveland ($1).

Laird - Butler - Cano - Beltre - Wood
Hunter - Lind - Sheffield - Ortiz

Santana - Buehrle - Eveland - Sonnanstine
Devine - Howell - Thornton

If I'm out of the money, I can keep nine. Butler, Wood, Lind, Santana, Buehrle, Eveland, Devine add up to $28; I'd have a salary cap of $140.

- - - -

In playoff chance parlance, I'm listed under "Needs help". I'm two points behind the fourth place team, who could lose a point and a half and fall to 71 - where I've topped out. There's ground to be made - four HRs means a point and a half; five RBIs gets me another point. Strikeouts might be a crap shoot, but nine more would be worth two points. Cautiously hopeful yet aware of the possibilities, I guess.

[bostontricky]

And the season literally couldn't end a moment too soon; I'm in sole possession of fourth place right now.

I will slide at least one, probably two points in strikeouts - I've got three starts remaining (Sonnanstine, Eveland, Buehrle); the two teams within four Ks of me have five (Wakefield x2, Hughes, Garland, Greg Smith) and six starters (Shields x2, Halladay, Weaver, Burnett, Rowland-Smith) going. OTOH, I do have Devine, Howell and Thornton in the bullpen, all seem to be able to punch out guys in bunches. Maybe I hold one of the guys off.

Need punch, there's three of us within two HRs, plus another RBI gets me half a point. But with Sheffield suspended, I've got a seven-man offense, probably six when Ortiz starts sitting...aagh.

[bostontricky]

Well, crap tightened up to an extraordinary degree. I wound up at the bottom of a 642-641-640-639 convergence of RBIs; also the bottom of an 820-819-815 trifecta of strikeouts. Short of a Robinson Cano grand slam later tonight (actually, Sheff could light it up tomorrow) and about three perfect innings from Matt Thornton tomorrow, I'm in fifth place.

Which wouldn't be so bad, except for having been in fourth place on Tuesday...

[bostontricky]

Two HRs and three RBIs from Sheff today, and I'll tie for fourth, splitting $250.

That's all I'm asking for, and the most I'm likely to get. (Has Sheff ever pulled off a hat trick? I wouldn't have to share, then...)

[bostontricky]

Fifth place. I knew it wasn't going to be my year when Sheffield struck out looking his second time up yesterday. A not-unprecedented two HR, three RBI day from Sheff would have propelled me up the 3-1/2 points I needed for sole possession of fourth place (and $250); instead, you'll get nothing and like it.

Still, the team's better far better off for next year than it was six weeks ago. Small consolation.

[surfer]

And you thought fantasy baseball was geeky . . . . . . .

http://fantasy.sportingnews.com/basebal ... 81010.html

[Borat Pri Hagafen]

I don't think that's necessarily geeky. Of course, I'm someone who traditionally plays Madden dynasties without actually playing any games, just drafting (the real players with their real names from the NCAA game), signing and trading to build a dynasty.

I don't spend much time gaming at this point, but if I were, I could absolutely see myself buying that if the minor leaguers were real and not all made-up names (which they probably are).

Anyway, I love drafting, trading, signing, etc, so I can definitely see the appeal.

[bostontricky]

Up for 2009. AL-only, keep up to nine, everyone's "signed" through 2010 except Butler, Buehrle and Beltre, who are up at the end of the season

I'll have $142 to spend. Some obvious keepers, some players on the bubble, Papi and Sheff - not at that price:

C $5 Laird
1B $5 Butler
2B $18 Cano
3B $12 Beltre
SS $5 Wood
OF $5 Lind
OF $15 Sheffield
OF (vacant)
DH $35 Ortiz

SP $5 Santana
SP $2 Buehrle
SP $4 Sonnanstine
SP $1 Eveland
RP $5 Devine
RP $5 Howell
RP $5 Thornton

Butler, Beltre, Wood, Santana, Buehrle, Sonnanstine, Devine leave me $104 for nine players.

I suppose you could make a case for keeping Laird, Cano or Lind; Eveland at that salary sounds good, but I need an ace, particularly if Santana's down for any length of time. Haven't considered positional scarcity (yet).

[jon abbey]

should I start a new thread? doesn't seem to be helpful to have this attached to last year, but maybe it is, dunno. let me know...

[surfer]

My keepers:

Hamilton
Holliday
Teixeira
Lincecum

[surfer]

I'm still undecided about the last UTL spot in my lineup, current I have Carlos Guillen in there, mostly because I hope to get some POs (as 1B) which would help me win that category on a weekly basis. Also considering Daniel Murphy (currently a FA), Melvin Mora, or Hank Blalock (both on my bench). Any thoughts on which of those four might project the best? I esp am looking for thoughts by the NYers (Jon and Borat) on Murphy whom I know nothing about, word is he's batting 2nd in the Mets lineup behind Reyes . . . . .

[jon abbey]

people seem to love Murphy, but I really don't pay much attention to the Mets, sorry.

[Borat Pri Hagafen]

I would prefer Murphy to any of the other 3, just because of his youth and upside.

He is batting 2nd and should see a ton of pitches to hit behind Reyes and in front of Beltran/Delgado/Wright.

Obviously those other guys are much more proven and have more job security though. I just will almost always take a promising 23-year old over a 37-year old like Mora or a 33-year old like Guillen. Blalock is interesting because he's 28 and has been very productive when he's played the last couple years, but he's just such an injury risk.

I'm only talking about offense, but I'd probably rank them Murphy, Blalock, Guillen, Mora. It's not a slam dunk at all though, because a reasonable case could definitely be made that any of the 4 will have the best year.