Euros 2020

[Wombatz]

congrats to surfer, congrats to my boy for calling out that both sancho and rashford would miss before the shootout even started (the rashford one was donnarumma's best save, it's seldom to see a shooter's plans slowly evaporate in real time (coz the goalie won't commit))

if mussolini had sent a few more bombers north it would have been a whole other ballgame

[surfer]

Thanks Lutz. It was a fun Kicktipp although not having a quorum of 10 makes it a little hollow. Still fun though. The final was one of the few matches in the knockout round I was able to devote attention to. It resembled more than anything, any Spurs match from the Mourinho era. With even more attacking talent wasted. One shot on goal in 120 minutes. 39% possession at home. Coverage in the Guardian among other places has been relatively upbeat, pointing to the linear progression from 2016 to 2018 to now, but I (although a fan of a lot of the individual players) remain unconvinced. Team evolution is not always linear, and having played 6 of 7 matches at home with widespread fan support and players in more or less peak form (no injuries), this might be their best chance for a long long time. Especially with France imploding and Germany and Spain in a down cycle.

I'm not putting all this at the feet of Southgate, and obviously if Rashford Sancho or Saka make their penalties then there is a whole different narrative, but he was pretty clearly outmanaged by Mancini in the final. The second half they ceded midfield control entirely to Italy which was fixable, Southgate had a lot of options on his bench, more so than Mancini. Southgate also didnt really address Immobile going off an Italy switching to a more fluid front 3 which caused their back line a lot of problems. England's advantage with pace never seemed to give Italy's back line problems.

England have a good squad and continue to produce a lot of talent so they should be competitive for cycles to come, but they are going to look back and really rue this as a huge missed opportunity that only comes once a generation.

[surfer]

(the rashford one was donnarumma's best save, it's seldom to see a shooter's plans slowly evaporate in real time (coz the goalie won't commit))

every single shooter who did one of those stuttering, stalling, slow mo hop, skip or jump techniques missed. Too clever by half and keepers have adjusted to it.

[Antoine]

Spain could make a good WC next year, they were really close to defeat Italy...

[surfer]

I'm interested in your Kicktipp strategy Antoine going into the Final. Pre-tournament you picked England, but for the Final you picked Italy. You were two points behind me. So if I picked the right winner, I dont think you could have won, although maybe if you picked the exact score and I only got the winner. Then we would have tied? However if I didnt pick the winner, you would have won or tied.

On the other hand, if you had picked England in the Final in addition to picking them pre-tournament, then it becomes a 50/50 with England win / you win, or Italy win / you lose scenario regardless of how I picked.

I think I have that right, interesting choices, I think strategically you made the right choice.

[Antoine]

Yeah, I also had ENG for the top scorer pick, though I don't know exactly how it works in case of ex aequo... Anyway, Kane didn't score!

[Wombatz]

this might be their best chance for a long long time. Especially with France imploding and Germany and Spain in a down cycle ... I'm not putting all this at the feet of Southgate

i guess southgate's been good in making england a proper national team at all, but now they'd need a manager with more of a tactical profile to keep them competing up there ... as antoine says, spain are already getting better, italy know what they're doing, i expect germany to quickly bounce back under the new manager, and clearly france (very obvious choice), the netherlands, and belgium would now have to act quickly and find somebody to make more out of their obvious talent ... and so should england. (dunno about portugal ... they mostly played better than last time around but were a bit soft at the belly, maybe they can get nuno in the winter ...)

[Antoine]

I picked England only because of the "home" effect, otherwise they didn't really impressed me. In another country, I think they would have been eliminated earlier.
If WC was tomorrow, I'd like to pick Argentina as Messi's last chance (?), but it's still far away (~500 days).
I was having a quick look at the qualifiers: Africa hasn't started yet, otherwise no big surprises at the moment (The Netherlands are in a sort of trap group, though).