NBA 2019 Offseason

[The G Man]

Here are the current Betfair odds for winning the 2019-20 championship.

LAC 21%
LAL 19%
MIL 12%
PH 10%
GS 7%
HOU 6%
UTAH 5%
DEN 4%
BRK 3%
BOS 3%
Others 10%

The combined odds of the top four are similar to the odds on the Warriors being next champions a year ago.

[jon abbey]

I'd say the Lakers seem too high and GS maybe too low there.

[Steve Minkin]

It's difficult to think of the Warriors without Iguodala.

Andre's will almost certainly be the first number retired at the new arena. Here's Lacob, today:

"During the summer of 2013, we went through an extensive free agency process in our efforts to sign Andre Iguodala. At that time, we envisioned him becoming a vital part of a young, up-and-coming team with championship aspirations. As we look back six years later, we actually underestimated what his value would be to our team, both on the court and in the locker room. In what has been well-documented, Andre sacrificed for the betterment of our team and, in one of the best stories of this journey, earned NBA Finals MVP honors in 2015. He has been absolutely vital to our success during five consecutive appearances in the NBA Finals and three championships. We thank Andre for his contributions and look forward to seeing his number in the rafters at Chase Center."

[The G Man]

I'd say the Lakers seem too high and GS maybe too low there.

I agree about the Lakers. I see all sorts of chemistry issues and not sure how coachable that team is. I also think they have the worst point guards in the league, though a much younger LeBron won with Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole.

[The G Man]

It's difficult to think of the Warriors without Iguodala.

Andre's will almost certainly be the first number retired at the new arena. Here's Lacob, today:

Igoudala's autobiography is excellent. He's as smart off the court as on it and he's very self-aware. I'm up to the part where he's just signed with the Warriors. I feel like I really know the guy now.

[The G Man]

A friend came up with the theory that Kawhi's camp feigned outrage at the Spurs in early 2018 over the handling of his quad injury because they wanted him traded to LA. This would imply that rather than being a head case, he is deeply cynical and trashed a great organization for his own purposes. I have no idea if this is true or not but it is plausible.

[Captain Hate]

I don't know how much of that to believe but I don't think anyone should confuse Kawhi's seeming discomfort with speaking much in public with being naive.

[The G Man]

Steve, the Warriors signed guard Alec Burks, who OKC let out of his committment after the PG trade and traded Damian Jones and a #2 to ATL for PF Omari Spellman, who was the 30th pick of the 2018 draft.

[Steve Minkin]

Local buzz has Meyers trying to trade Russell for Aaron Gordon.
But there's also talk that Gordon might be the prime piece in a deal to acquire Westbrook for the Magic.

[jon abbey]

you can't trade new signings until Dec 15, right?

[The G Man]

you can't trade new signings until Dec 15, right?

Correct and I doubt OKC wants an on-the-block Westbrook starting the season with them.

I think Miami and Detroit are the most likely destinations. I doubt Presti would trade him for Wiggins, who has failed a bunch of coaches but Minnesota would like that.

Igoudala is about to be bought out. Several teams, including both in LA are interested. Korver has been bought out and is rumored to be choosing between his original team Philly, and Milwaukee. I wonder if he'll be able to stay on the floor in a finals or conference finals, given how slow he's become.

[walto]

an on-the-block Westbrook

FWIW, I find that phrase disturbing. (I'm not suggesting anything untoward was suggested, just pointing out my squeamishness.)

[Steve Minkin]

Nate Silver has developed a new stat to measure defensive play. His offensive stat had the acronym CARMELO, this one has the acronym DRAYMOND (Defensive/Rating/ Accounting for/Minimal/ Openness by/ Nearest/ Defender).https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a- ... a-defense/

" . . . most impressive part [of Gobert's stats] was not that opponents shot poorly against him, although that helped the Jazz, of course. Rather, it was that he was the nearest defender on so many shots: about 26 shots per 100 possessions that he was on the floor last year as compared with a league average of about 17 shots defended per 100 possessions."


The best defender according to DRAYMOND is Draymond
NBA players by DRAYMOND* defensive ratings, based on opponents’ shooting data in the regular season and playoffs, with a minimum of 10,000 possessions played since 2013-14

PLAYER POSSESSIONS PLAYED DRAYMOND RATING
Draymond Green 38,282 +3.16
Joel Embiid 11,766 +2.95
Kristaps Porzingis 11,714 +2.57
Rudy Gobert 24,889 +2.40
Tim Duncan 14,218 +2.20
Andre Roberson 15,147 +2.06
Anthony Davis 30,484 +2.05
Andrew Bogut 13,887 +2.01
Roy Hibbert 14,695 +1.92
Josh Smith 13,122 +1.90
Hassan Whiteside 18,508 +1.87
Derrick Favors 24,324 +1.86
Myles Turner 17,509 +1.73
Aron Baynes 14,484 +1.71
Joakim Noah 15,511 +1.60
Brook Lopez 25,200 +1.60
Timofey Mozgov 14,696 +1.57
Luc Mbah a Moute 16,502 +1.56
Serge Ibaka 32,865 +1.54
Kyle O’Quinn 11,843 +1.52
Montrezl Harrell 11,001 +1.44
Kevin Durant 35,683 +1.44
Robin Lopez 25,657 +1.43
Al Horford 30,395 +1.41
David West 17,671 +1.40
Clint Capela 18,110 +1.39
Pau Gasol 23,255 +1.38
James Johnson 17,746 +1.33
Josh Richardson 17,276 +1.28
LaMarcus Aldridge 33,382 +1.27
Dewayne Dedmon 13,581 +1.25
Jaylen Brown 13,507 +1.25
Jusuf Nurkic 15,099 +1.24
Giannis Antetokounmpo 33,511 +1.23
Nemanja Bjelica 11,568 +1.15
John Henson 15,221 +1.14
Danny Green 28,467 +1.12
Kosta Koufos 15,534 +1.11
Jerami Grant 20,433 +1.10
Ben Simmons 13,358 +1.10
Steven Adams 28,973 +1.09
Tyler Zeller 11,412 +1.09
Mike Dunleavy 12,931 +1.08
Klay Thompson 41,713 +1.05
Tony Allen 14,520 +1.04
Miles Plumlee 11,556 +1.04
DeMarcus Cousins 24,075 +1.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 17,801 +0.99
Justise Winslow 14,191 +0.97
Raymond Felton 16,949 +0.97
Taj Gibson 26,231 +0.96
DeAndre Jordan 34,072 +0.96
Thabo Sefolosha 16,186 +0.95
Kawhi Leonard 27,674 +0.88
Ian Mahinmi 14,184 +0.88
Pascal Siakam 12,798 +0.88
Solomon Hill 14,891 +0.87
Jonas Valanciunas 23,901 +0.85
Marcin Gortat 28,529 +0.84
Kemba Walker 33,021 +0.81
Jrue Holiday 25,597 +0.80
Shaun Livingston 21,495 +0.79
Spencer Hawes 11,803 +0.78
Bismack Biyombo 17,520 +0.78
Maurice Harkless 20,198 +0.77
Wilson Chandler 21,126 +0.76
Amir Johnson 20,436 +0.75
Trevor Booker 16,039 +0.72
Cody Zeller 17,321 +0.72
Alex Len 17,616 +0.71
Marc Gasol 30,496 +0.71
David Lee 12,774 +0.67
George Hill 26,013 +0.64
Langston Galloway 15,734 +0.62
Quincy Acy 10,497 +0.61
Evan Turner 27,518 +0.61
Dwight Powell 12,343 +0.59
Paul Pierce 12,678 +0.59
Cory Joseph 23,771 +0.57
Nikola Mirotic 18,138 +0.57
Jimmy Butler 32,597 +0.54
Jayson Tatum 12,138 +0.53
James Harden 40,828 +0.52
Nerlens Noel 14,418 +0.51
Noah Vonleh 11,214 +0.47
Derrick Rose 17,293 +0.47
Patrick Patterson 21,197 +0.47
Jeremy Lin 18,390 +0.46
Dion Waiters 21,066 +0.45
Domantas Sabonis 11,443 +0.44
Ed Davis 17,428 +0.43
Jared Dudley 18,767 +0.42
Goran Dragic 28,790 +0.41
Aaron Gordon 20,045 +0.40
Marreese Speights 11,425 +0.40
Paul Millsap 30,217 +0.39
CJ McCollum 28,793 +0.38
Justin Holiday 16,591 +0.38
Eric Bledsoe 26,635 +0.36
Tristan Thompson 27,936 +0.36
Jared Sullinger 11,886 +0.35
Trey Lyles 10,302 +0.34
Paul George 32,598 +0.33
Allen Crabbe 18,711 +0.33
Lance Thomas 12,142 +0.32
Gerald Henderson 16,500 +0.31
Tyler Johnson 15,111 +0.30
DeMarre Carroll 26,019 +0.29
Stephen Curry 39,307 +0.27
Mike Conley 23,955 +0.23
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 12,081 +0.21
Mason Plumlee 22,777 +0.21
Dwight Howard 24,588 +0.20
LeBron James 39,997 +0.19
Rudy Gay 24,069 +0.19
JaMychal Green 14,173 +0.18
Patrick Beverley 22,626 +0.17
Blake Griffin 29,325 +0.16
Nikola Vucevic 26,406 +0.16
Damian Lillard 38,628 +0.16
Jae Crowder 27,620 +0.16
Matthew Dellavedova 18,129 +0.16
Kent Bazemore 22,184 +0.16
Mario Chalmers 15,652 +0.15
Luol Deng 18,725 +0.15
Jonas Jerebko 15,123 +0.14
Markieff Morris 26,032 +0.12
Andre Iguodala 29,712 +0.11
Omer Asik 10,195 +0.11
JJ Redick 29,725 +0.10
Anthony Tolliver 17,263 +0.08
Manu Ginobili 16,974 +0.08
Dwyane Wade 25,627 +0.08
PJ Tucker 32,880 +0.08
Austin Rivers 23,087 +0.07
Spencer Dinwiddie 13,248 +0.07
John Wall 31,634 +0.07
Karl-Anthony Towns 23,043 +0.07
Ish Smith 19,446 +0.07
Wesley Matthews 30,095 +0.06
Jeremy Lamb 18,210 +0.06
Chris Bosh 12,709 +0.06
Marvin Williams 25,849 +0.06
Kyle Anderson 12,802 +0.05
Jason Smith 11,230 +0.05
Donovan Mitchell 12,171 +0.04
Isaiah Thomas 23,565 +0.04
Al-Farouq Aminu 26,956 +0.03
CJ Miles 17,938 +0.03
Terry Rozier 13,805 +0.03
Kyle Lowry 35,784 +0.02
Marcus Morris 28,223 +0.02
Reggie Bullock 10,929 +0.01
Gerald Green 18,429 +0.00
Dario Saric 14,499 +0.00
Andre Drummond 31,709 +0.00
Marcus Smart 22,997 +0.00
Terrence Jones 12,064 +0.00
Kelly Olynyk 20,609 -0.01
Brandon Bass 12,616 -0.02
Courtney Lee 25,321 -0.02
Khris Middleton 30,940 -0.03
Jerian Grant 10,248 -0.03
Terrence Ross 23,139 -0.03
Nene 16,100 -0.03
T.J. McConnell 15,302 -0.03
Michael Carter-Williams 17,756 -0.03
Boris Diaw 15,683 -0.04
Jarrett Jack 14,572 -0.05
Malcolm Brogdon 12,073 -0.06
Kyle Kuzma 10,183 -0.06
Mike Muscala 10,947 -0.07
Brandon Ingram 12,815 -0.07
Robert Covington 21,084 -0.07
Vince Carter 18,232 -0.09
Tyson Chandler 18,693 -0.09
Meyers Leonard 10,837 -0.10
Matt Barnes 18,283 -0.10
Tony Snell 20,715 -0.13
Jeff Teague 29,994 -0.13
Nicolas Batum 31,707 -0.13
Bradley Beal 34,063 -0.14
Al Jefferson 14,574 -0.15
Garrett Temple 18,146 -0.15
Aaron Brooks 11,764 -0.17
Iman Shumpert 20,064 -0.17
Willie Cauley-Stein 14,903 -0.17
Enes Kanter 24,020 -0.18
Joe Harris 13,015 -0.19
Bobby Portis 10,791 -0.20
Hollis Thompson 13,414 -0.21
Wesley Johnson 19,012 -0.22
Thaddeus Young 31,870 -0.22
Mirza Teletovic 11,261 -0.22
Jeff Green 28,433 -0.23
Gordon Hayward 26,388 -0.23
Kevin Love 28,026 -0.24
Stanley Johnson 12,913 -0.25
Omri Casspi 13,641 -0.25
Luis Scola 11,128 -0.26
Eric Gordon 28,024 -0.26
Harrison Barnes 33,280 -0.28
Kyle Korver 28,624 -0.28
Nikola Jokic 19,092 -0.29
Devin Harris 15,894 -0.29
Victor Oladipo 28,135 -0.29
Deron Williams 17,520 -0.31
Tobias Harris 31,349 -0.31
Monta Ellis 22,806 -0.32
Jerryd Bayless 13,461 -0.32
Randy Foye 13,985 -0.32
Jason Terry 13,194 -0.32
Dennis Schroder 23,921 -0.33
Zaza Pachulia 17,765 -0.33
Mike Scott 15,790 -0.34
Richard Jefferson 14,457 -0.35
Trey Burke 17,019 -0.36
Dirk Nowitzki 24,696 -0.37
Joe Ingles 22,212 -0.37
Ian Clark 10,859 -0.39
Chandler Parsons 18,098 -0.40
Isaiah Canaan 10,149 -0.40
Tyreke Evans 18,965 -0.40
Ersan Ilyasova 21,881 -0.41
Jordan Hill 10,087 -0.45
Darren Collison 25,990 -0.46
Jodie Meeks 12,673 -0.47
E’Twaun Moore 19,870 -0.48
Larry Nance Jr. 12,949 -0.49
Shelvin Mack 15,274 -0.49
Shane Larkin 10,117 -0.49
Patty Mills 23,097 -0.51
Joe Johnson 25,036 -0.52
Tim Hardaway Jr. 22,178 -0.52
Ryan Anderson 18,873 -0.52
Lance Stephenson 20,349 -0.52
Norman Powell 10,579 -0.53
Kyle Singler 11,355 -0.53
Will Barton 20,048 -0.54
Avery Bradley 26,335 -0.54
T.J. Warren 15,353 -0.55
Tony Parker 22,184 -0.55
Mario Hezonja 10,871 -0.56
Greg Monroe 21,907 -0.56
Nik Stauskas 13,971 -0.56
Danilo Gallinari 17,302 -0.57
Jon Leuer 10,751 -0.57
Chris Paul 31,344 -0.58
James Ennis III 12,375 -0.59
Carmelo Anthony 24,805 -0.59
Andrew Wiggins 29,659 -0.60
Taurean Prince 11,091 -0.62
Rodney Hood 19,067 -0.62
Ramon Sessions 13,288 -0.62
Rodney Stuckey 11,918 -0.63
Gary Harris 19,416 -0.64
JR Smith 25,891 -0.64
Channing Frye 16,675 -0.65
Corey Brewer 21,400 -0.67
Reggie Jackson 25,636 -0.67
Wayne Ellington 17,863 -0.68
Frank Kaminsky 13,278 -0.69
Arron Afflalo 19,467 -0.71
Julius Randle 18,720 -0.72
Doug McDermott 14,334 -0.74
Bojan Bogdanovic 24,638 -0.74
Elfrid Payton 21,014 -0.78
Buddy Hield 13,734 -0.78
Jamal Murray 15,101 -0.79
Brandon Knight 16,757 -0.80
Devin Booker 19,065 -0.80
Lou Williams 26,587 -0.81
Gorgui Dieng 21,118 -0.82
Kenneth Faried 17,635 -0.82
Derrick Williams 11,367 -0.83
Zach Randolph 21,896 -0.84
DeMar DeRozan 36,103 -0.85
Evan Fournier 25,823 -0.85
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 29,067 -0.88
D’Angelo Russell 16,686 -0.90
Emmanuel Mudiay 13,309 -0.90
Ben McLemore 17,957 -0.94
Norris Cole 11,175 -0.97
Jameer Nelson 15,646 -0.97
Kyrie Irving 31,938 -0.99
Ricky Rubio 26,045 -0.99
Jordan Clarkson 22,324 -1.03
Otto Porter Jr. 24,148 -1.03
Russell Westbrook 35,302 -1.04
Jonathon Simmons 11,869 -1.05
Kelly Oubre Jr. 14,377 -1.08
Brandon Jennings 14,286 -1.16
Dante Cunningham 19,597 -1.17
Anthony Morrow 10,184 -1.18
Marco Belinelli 23,994 -1.19
D.J. Augustin 22,122 -1.22
Jabari Parker 15,480 -1.24
Trevor Ariza 37,477 -1.25
J.J. Barea 16,230 -1.25
Nick Young 14,675 -1.26
Jamal Crawford 25,169 -1.28
Ty Lawson 17,022 -1.31
Zach LaVine 17,990 -1.36
Alec Burks 14,268 -1.49
Jose Calderon 16,539 -1.54
Rajon Rondo 22,941 -1.55

[Steve Minkin]

>>ESPN’s Ohm Youngmisuk reports that assistant coach Ron Adams has turned down a Lakers’ offer and will remain in Golden State.

The report says he will stay in a “revised role” with the team.

Coach Adams is 71 years old and has has served under head coach Steve Kerr for the last five years after previously working as Brad Stevens’ top assistant in Boston. According to a New York Times piece by Kurt Streeter, Adams is the team’s “truth teller” and an immensely respected presence who keeps the Warriors’ edge from relenting.<<

Dubs sign that crazy talented 18-year old from Serbia I've been touting, Alen Smailagic, to a full roster spot. They also signed Poole, who impressed most at summer league, and Paschall. Smailagic's a project -- he puts up highlight reel dunks and blocks, he's very quick, and he has great handles for a 6'10" guy; but he also looks like he doesn't know where he belongs half the time and doesn't see the floor that well. If he can put the mental pieces into place, he'll be a player.

[The G Man]

*Adam Silver walks onto stage*
*taps mic*

"With the 1st through 30th picks in the NBA draft, the Oklahoma City Thunder select...."

Sam Presti should be awarded the Executive of the Year award now!

The Thunder have picked up eight firsts in the last week. Westbrook and Harden sharing a backcourt will be much different than the first time. I don't know how it will work but if anybody can come up with a plan, it's MDA. Nevertheless, Westbrook is terrible off-ball and Harden always has the ball so color me skeptical. I thought Paul and Harden were a better fit but Paul chafed at his role.

[Captain Hate]

I thought Paul and Harden were a better fit but Paul chafed at his role.

I don't get CP3's attitude at all. He looked much more effective in Houston than with the Clip Joint. I mean in both places they were sucking Warriors exhaust but in Houston they at least were competitive. I cheered for the Clips while being 100% sure they didn't stand a chance and in Houston Harden could give Paul some relief from running the show against that smothering defense.

[jon abbey]

I think Paul has always been overrated and had begun to slip quite a bit from his peak. I don't think there are two superstars in the league who are a worse fit together than Harden and Westbrook, though, no idea how they are going to make that work.

[jon abbey]

I am not sure how much of a Knicks fan I consider myself currently, but if the Lakers situation blows up after one season and the HOU situation goes about as mediocrely as expected (second round again?), I could see NY sending a package to HOU for Westbrook and Anthony Davis jumping to the Nix, his other choice besides the Lakers. if NY could do this without sending too much of their young talent (Mitchell Robinson is untouchable, and ideally they keep at least two of Barrett/Knox/Smith and they blossom as 4th/5th options), they could possibly jump Brooklyn again by the time Durant is back.

[The G Man]

I am not sure how much of a Knicks fan I consider myself currently, but if the Lakers situation blows up after one season and the HOU situation goes about as mediocrely as expected (second round again?), I could see NY sending a package to HOU for Westbrook and Anthony Davis jumping to the Nix, his other choice besides the Lakers. if NY could do this without sending too much of their young talent (Mitchell Robinson is untouchable, and ideally they keep at least two of Barrett/Knox/Smith and they blossom as 4th/5th options), they could possibly jump Brooklyn again by the time Durant is back.

Marcus Morris is the first Rich Paul client to sign with the Knicks. Paul is reported to have steered him there after the fallout from Reggie Bullock's physical opened up cap space for New York precisely because he wanted to have a presence with the Knicks.

[The G Man]

I think it's expected that Miami-OKC will do a Chris Paul trade. The playing fit is fine between CP3 and Butler but how long before they hate each other? Riley wants to make one more push before he retires but I don't think he'll be successful. Dragic has an expiring contract so he'll definitely be included. OKC will probably have to take Dion Waiters back and may have to offer at least one of the eight #1's they have accumulated since the draft.