NCAA hoops 2014-2015

[jon abbey]

I think I might go the other way on Arizona/Wisconsin if I was picking today (meaning I'd go Arizona), but it's a tossup either way. I was going to write this before the slew of high seeds fell this weekend (you'll have to trust me), but I wish that Arizona/Wisconsin was a potential national semi, with Kentucky and Duke in the other regions.

I really don't like how many rematches of teams there seem to be from last year: Wisconsin knocked out Oregon again, Michigan St knocked out Virginia again, Wisconsin and Arizona in the same region again. I'd think that it wouldn't be hard to move teams one spot and avoid those, but it doesn't seem like the NCAA cares.

[walto]

Doesn't look like Meeks will play against Wiscony.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... s-sweet-16

[Enforcer]

We already knew this, but still, pretty impressive: http://www.freep.com/story/sports/colle ... /70392310/

[walto]

Yeah, he's amazing. You simply can't judge his teams by how they look in January. As everybody knows, it was only a couple of fluke plays that kept them from winning the B1G tournament championship game in regulation. Who would have believed that back when they were even sucking on their home floor?

[jon abbey]

Pitino isn't too far behind, his team also looked terrible pretty much whenever I saw them this year and now are a different animal.

Pete Gillen writes a few columns for the NY Post every year around this time, before the round of 64, before the round of 16, and probably next week before the Final Four. he's both knowledgable and funny, definitely worth checking out this week's:

http://nypost.com/2015/03/23/why-kentuc ... caa-final/

[surfer]

Pete Gillen writes a few columns for the NY Post every year around this time, before the round of 64, before the round of 16, and probably next week before the Final Four. he's both knowledgable and funny, definitely worth checking out this week's:

/

If AZ and Wisconsin go 2OT you can have my mail forwarded to the cardiac unit over at Dominican.

[surfer]

Heh, jeez wow. Teams from Texas are 0-3. Is Rick Barnes the worst coach in all of sports? Its astonishing to me that he still has a job anywhere, let alone at Texas, but I think he will be fired soon.

Ranking the worst tournament coaches, look who comes in at #1:

http://pastebin.com/raw.php?i=6442MRrZ

(and also at #2, )

[walto]

Back when I used to spend a little money on this stuff, I lost most of it backing those guys' teams--especially Olson's. Now that we've got hard choke evidence---Can I sue?

[surfer]

Lute had some bad losses to lower seeds that really hurt his tournament win total: to #15 Santa Clara in '93, #13 OK in '99, #8 Wisconsin in '00, and most of his deep runs came as a high seed. His teams were never lower seeds that went on deep runs winning upsets, which often seems characteristic of Izzo's teams, peaking during the tournament.

[jon abbey]

well, except for the Miles Simon team that beat three #1s as a #4, but of course I don't have to tell you that.

[surfer]

well, except for the Miles Simon team that beat three #1s as a #4, but of course I don't have to tell you that.

Yeah, that certainly helped his exp_W total somewhat. I guess a #4 seed would be expected to win two games, and they won six that year. So +4 there.

[walto]

Anyhow, as the number crunchers have finally isolated the elusive 'choke gene,' I have no doubt that countless riches will finally flow in my direction!

Seriously though, if there's really enough data there to be credible (ie, I think we can ignore Ollie's high score), consideration of how a coach does in the tournament is something that could be considered, along with power rankings, recent injuries, game location, etc.

But...how much weight? There's the rub.

[The G Man]

We already knew this, but still, pretty impressive: http://www.freep.com/story/sports/colle ... /70392310/

Larry, I didn't think much of Neil Payne's ratings.


#1. Is a great regular season coach who coaches equally well in the playoffs and ends up with a 0 variance an average coach? What makes tournament variance a good criteria for coaching prowess? If Kentucky doesn't win this year does that mean that Calipari was a better coach last year, when his team lost 10 regular season games but went 5-1 in the tournament? Is Coach K a mediocre coach because he's +4.4? No, he's a great regular season coach who also wins in the tournament.

#2. Izzo has the most tournament wins/expected given regular season, but his tournament win rate is not the highest. Brad Stevens won 12.1 against expected 3.8, which is better than Izzo's 45.1/30.8. John Beilein has won 18/9.1. That''s a 2:1 ratio versus Izzo's 1.5:1, even if one accepts the criteria. If Bellein coaches at Michigan long enough to win tournament games at a 27/22 rate, 1.23:1, he'll match Izzo with the same sample size.

[The G Man]

Anyhow, as the number crunchers have finally isolated the elusive 'choke gene,' I have no doubt that countless riches will finally flow in my direction!

Seriously though, if there's really enough data there to be credible (ie, I think we can ignore Ollie's high score), consideration of how a coach does in the tournament is something that could be considered, along with power rankings, recent injuries, game location, etc.

But...how much weight? There's the rub.

FYI, Your post beat mine be a few seconds. I posted before reading what you wrote. Nevertheless, I think that it's silly to use the sum (tournament wins minus expected tournament wins based on the regular season) to decide who's the best coach.

[surfer]

Anyhow, as the number crunchers have finally isolated the elusive 'choke gene,' I have no doubt that countless riches will finally flow in my direction!

Seriously though, if there's really enough data there to be credible (ie, I think we can ignore Ollie's high score), consideration of how a coach does in the tournament is something that could be considered, along with power rankings, recent injuries, game location, etc.

But...how much weight? There's the rub.

FYI, Your post beat mine be a few seconds. I posted before reading what you wrote. Nevertheless, I think that it's silly to use the sum (tournament wins minus expected tournament wins based on the regular season) to decide who's the best coach.

By and large I agree with most of what you've written Gordo, but you're missing the tagline, the article in 538 was not titled Best Coach, it was Best Tournament Coach. I personally still think the formula is rather crude, not rewarding coaches who do well in the regular season, AND well in the tournament, but putting an unnecessary premium on overacheiving teams, or, depending on your perspective, teams that underachieved during the regular season. The rankings need to be considered within a broader context. Certainly looking at Lute's 4 Final Fours and 1 Title (no other coach in the Worst Tournament Coaches rankings in even close to that) mitigates that. I look at it as an "all other things being equal", these rankings (as long as the sample is greater than five tournaments or so) provide a tiebreaker. You can rest assured if Rick Barnes' Texas as a #4 seed faces Izzo's MSU as a #11, I will always lean away from Barnes and towards Izzo. There is something to the notion that certain coaches prepare their teams better and have better in-game management for tournament play than others.

[surfer]

#1. Is a great regular season coach who coaches equally well in the playoffs and ends up with a 0 variance an average coach?

No but it arguably makes them an average tournament coach.

[jon abbey]

Jim Jackson's kid is a stud. no surprise, but first that I'm aware of his existence, I wonder where Chad Ford has him ranked.

[walto]

Congrats Chris. Another great game from Dekker.

[jon abbey]

I couldn't have been the only person laughing to myself for minutes of game time there thinking about how they were going to take away one of WV's few points at the next commercial break.

[Harold Baines]

I couldn't have been the only person laughing to myself for minutes of game time there thinking about how they were going to take away one of WV's few points at the next commercial break.

Why were you watching that game?