Fantasy Baseball

[crawjo]

Oh, and who the hell is Pablo Sandoval, and why is he so good?

[surfer]

Kung Fu Panda

He's the only bat the Giants have.

[surfer]

Last Year's roster

Michael Bourn (Hou - OF)
Everth Cabrera (SD - SS)
Carl Crawford (TB - OF)
Mark DeRosa (SF - 1B,2B,3B,OF)
Josh Hamilton (Tex - OF)
Matt Holliday (StL - OF)
Paul Konerko (CWS - 1B)
Brian McCann (Atl - C)
Jhonny Peralta (Cle - 3B,SS)
Juan Rivera (LAA - OF)
Carlos Ruiz (Phi - C)
Mark Teixeira (NYY - 1B)
Dan Uggla (Fla - 2B)
Vernon Wells (Tor - OF)

Pitching

Brett Anderson (Oak - SP)
Heath Bell (SD - RP)
Justin Duchscherer (Oak - SP)
Brian Fuentes (LAA - RP)
Hong-Chih Kuo (LAD - SP,RP)
Ted Lilly (ChC - SP)
Tim Lincecum (SF - SP)
Mark Lowe (Sea - RP)
Mike MacDougal (Fla - RP)
Jeff Niemann (TB - SP,RP)
Vicente Padilla (LAD - SP)
Brad Penny (StL - SP)
Justin Verlander (Det - SP)

5 Keepers: Lincecum, Verlander, Teixeira, Crawford, and either Holiday/Hamilton, havent decided on that last choice yet. Holiday seems to be the safer pick, but Hamilton has more upside. Does anyone think McCann should be considered for that last keeper slot? I'm thinking there's enough good catchers out there that its not a true premium position. Brett Anderson is intruiging because of his long term viability. But I dont think he's keeper status yet.

[jon abbey]

Sean Rodriguez on TB, who they got from the Angels for Kazmir, has 3 HRs and a triple in his first 5 ABs this spring. he's trying to win the 2B job and push Zobrist to RF.

[bostontricky]

Something for nothing department: had an offer out of the blue for Kinsler at $35 (who I was going to drop anyway) for four players more or less at market (Barton $5, Hunter $17, Papi $17, Marcum $5, all signed through 2011).

Given that the larder was completely bare at the end of last season's futile run for the money - I had traded all prospect-types for expiring contracts - and that I was getting no action on Kinsler all winter, I signed off, figuring it's worth having Marcum at that price for two years, even if I drop the other three guys.

Right now, $142 cap, AL only, I can keep up to nine, need nine batters, four starters, and three relievers - here's where I stand:

C
1B Barton $5
2B Nix $5
3B
SS
OF Crawford $37
OF Hunter $17
OF Damon $13
DH Ortiz $17

SP Verlander $28
SP E. Santana $5
SP Marcum $5
SP
RP Wood $16
RP J. Johnson $5
RP

It seems like every last one of those guys is at or about market: I also have an offer on the table for Cahill @$3 and Hamilton @$17 for Verlander, but I'll let the guy stew on that. I'm a little perplexed where to go with this - Nix and Johnson are obvious drops, and I couldn't keep all of the other guys even if I wanted for budgetary reasons. It's a pretty hideous situation, but it was hideous before I pulled the trigger on the Kinsler deal. At least I have some shiny objects to flash around...

[bostontricky]

And one trade often sparks the entire league to participate in the flurry of activity: I wound up moving Verlander @ 28 for Buchholz @ 5, Joe Saunders @ 5, Konerko @ 4 and Chris Getz @ 1. Three below-market keepers, plus another flashy object in Saunders. I was also extended the courtesy of flipping Barton for Wheeler in the earlier trade, so I jumped there.

So if you throw out the fluff, here's nine guys I'm keeping:

Konerko $4
Getz $1
Crawford $37
Hunter $17
Damon $13
Buchholz $5
Marcum $5
Santana $5
Wheeler $2

$89 in salaries, leaves me $53 for seven guys. A stud pitcher, Ortiz on the cheap, fill in the blanks (C, SS, 3B, 2 RPs), a wing and a prayer, maybe there's enough pixie dust left for one more trick. A great deal better off than I was a week ago.

I am on the fence about Damon, so he goes into the flashy objects pool with Saunders and Kerry Wood at $16. I can hopefully move two or all three of these guys for a cheap keeper - J.J. Hardy at $9 has my eye, and seems obtainable.

[crawjo]

That was a nice deal you made getting those players for Verlander.

I think I've settled on keeping Haren, Papelbon, Sandoval, Derrek Lee and Werth for my keeper league, and dropping, among many others, Reynolds and Hamilton. Reynolds strikes out too much for me to believe that he's going to put up numbers similar to last year--and even last year his OBP was south of .350--and Hamilton has too many injury concerns for me to keep him over Werth. Werth is CF-eligible, barely, so that massively improves his value for me for this season.

[bostontricky]

Thanks, David. There's a standing offer of Felix for Buchholz (which I will decline), which if you cancel out Felix and Verlander, I'd receive Konerko, Getz and Saunders for nothing...

Remains of the Day: strange things happen as our deadline to declare protected players approaches. Marco Scutaro @ $5 fell into my lap for basically nothing - a second round draft pick at our first pickup in late April. Almost at the same time, an email comes in offering either Millwood @ $5 or Brandon McCarthy @ $1 for Joe Saunders. I email back saying, yeah, I'm interested in Millwood (for again, essentially nothing, not planning on keeping Saunders).

Now I've got a couple of pieces out of thin air. I start waving the surplus around, and gather the attraction of the new kids on the block, who are massively short-handed but have Mike Napoli at $3. A few minutes later, it's Johnny Damon, Ervin Santana and Dan Wheeler for Napoli. Voila.

$3 Napoli
$4 Konerko
$1 Getz
$5 Scutaro
$37 Crawford
$17 Hunter

$5 Buchholz
$5 Millwood
$5 Marcum

I've got $60 for seven spots: the ace pitcher, a couple of bats on the cheap (need 3B, OF, Papi will probably DH), and fill out the bullpen with $1 arms.

The only question I have right now is: do you move Scutaro for J.J. Hardy @ $9? I think Hardy will bounce back, and that he's a better fit for the team, but that ballpark is a wild card right now, can't possibly be a better hitter's environment than the Humperdome, no?

The advanced theory question is: do you move Crawford for a cheap keeper? Denard Span at a buck? Hmmm.

[crawjo]

Just had my draft last night. For my five keepers I kept Dan Haren, Jonathan Papelbon, Derrek Lee, Pablo Sandoval and Jayson Werth. Not the best by far, so for the rest of my draft I tried to focus on picking young talent for a renewable resource. Here's how my team looks at the moment.

C Matt Wieters
1B Derrek Lee
2B Dan Uggla
3B Pablo Sandoval
SS Jason Bartlett
IF Adrian Beltre
CF Jayson Werth
OF Jason Heyward
OF Raul Ibanez
UT J.D. Drew
UT Nick Swisher
BN Luke Scott
BN Delmon Young

SP Dan Haren
SP Josh Beckett
RP Jonathan Papelbon
RP Mike Gonzalez
P Neftali Feliz
P Matt Thornton
P Luke Gregerson
P Nick Masset
BN A.J. Burnett
BN Brian Matusz
BN Joe Blanton

[bostontricky]

Draft was Sunday, and the offense has a bit of a 2002 flair to it (adds in italics)

$3 Napoli
$4 Konerko
$1 Getz
$9 Tejada
$5 Scutaro
$37 Crawford
$17 Hunter
$5 Wells
$1 Cameron

$18 Garza
$22 Shields
$5 Buchholz
$5 Marcum
$9 M. Gonzalez
$1 Wheeler
$1 Okajima

The goal was to get an ace starter for somewhere south of $30; however they were all going in the $32-35 range, even Cliff Lee, who's starting the season on the DL. So instead of a five-star guy, I grabbed two four-star guys. Stumbled into a cheap closer in Gonzalez, and filled out the offense as best I could - the worry is, about half the O could get real old, real quick.

Strange to leave the draft for once with no lingering regrets, and then the league wonks run their projections and show me in tenth place. I think they've underestimated my pitching staff (defintely so if Marcum bounces back), but still, ouch.

[Brian Olewnick]

fwiw, I think the ESPN tribute to Rotisserie baseball is on tonight at 8PM. It includes a reenactment of the initial group. Okrent and Waggoner say it's actually funny.

[bostontricky]

Unexpectedly in first place (riding the resurgent Wells and Konerko, but I'm getting nothing out of Napoli and Cameron), and I've got the feeling my pitching staff will at least keep me out of the bottom half all season. Second biweekly pickup of the season this morning, and I make my first move of the season - trading a future draft pick to move up today, and drop Okajima for Brandon Morrow, the coveted "starter who's bullpen eligible".

After which I find the commissioner had to talk the league dim bulb out of trading Kevin Gregg or one of his other closers for Justin Masterson (another SP/RP eligible). Morrow has a start tonight against Oakland, and then the coveted day-game-after-a-night-game against Cleveland on Wednesday. If he pitches well both outings, I'll see if I can make a move to the guy not for Gregg, but ideally Tampa's Soriano.

[bostontricky]

Amazingly, still hanging in first place, but now with a 20-point lead over the team that's been riding John Buck and Alex Gonzalez. Last week made the second move of the season, Carlos Guillen in for Chris Getz at 2B.

Napoli, Konerko, C. Guillen, Tejada, Scutaro
Crawford, Wells, Hunter, Cameron

Garza, Shields, Buchholz, Marcum
Morrow, M. Gonzalez, Wheeler

Short of possibly replacing Cameron, there's nothing that's going to help in the free-agent pool.

- - - -
I'm determined not to worry about saves. If Gonzalez comes back and closes, I'll catch a couple of teams there, but am not going to blow things up to get a closer.

I did offer the dim bulb Konerko (@ $4) and Morrow (relief-eligible, also @ $4) for Teixiera and Soria (both expiring) about a month ago, but the guy still wanted to wait and see. He's still in ninth and going nowhere; Konerko homered and Morrow had a stellar game against the Yankees today, so maybe I make him the same offer tomorrow.

The last-place team has a couple of expiring contracts in Youkilis and Longoria; I dangled Wells (@ $5), Buchholz (@ $5) and Tejada (throw-in @ $7) to team for those two plus Beckett @ $32 - the reply was, too early, but we're aware of the situation and will think about it. Next pickup is Friday, I'll ping them then...

[bostontricky]

Patience, patience. Made my third move last week (Matsui in for Cameron), and just pulled the trigger on Pierre-Danks-Bautista for Buchholz-Matsui-Tejada.

3B is still the question mark, but I'm already scheming on how to move Bautista.


Napoli - Konerko - C. Guillen - Bautista - Scutaro
Crawford - Hunter - Wells - Pierre

Shields - Garza - Danks - Marcum
Morrow - M. Gonzalez (DL) - Wheeler

- - -
Still in first place, the Rays pitchers are doing there best to chip away ERA and WHIP. Oddly, leading the league in HR with that squad. Top three in all categories except SB (5th), WHIP (6th) and saves (last). Pierre should help.

[bostontricky]

Sometimes you sit and wait. Bautista continues to astound. Pierre has helped - still last in saves, but 4th in ERA, top three in all other categories.
But I'm still wary of total and utter collapse. This thing couldn't end soon enough.

Keys to success:
1) Ace the draft, fucking nail it to the wall.
2) Patience. The road not taken is more often than not the correct path.
3) Luck
4) Luck

[crawjo]

So I finished in seventh place this year. Drafting both AJ Burnett and Josh Beckett didn't work out too well, nor did failing to designate Josh Hamilton as one of my keepers in favor of Derrek Lee. Ouch. Anyway, this is my roster heading into the offseason. I have to designate 5 of these guys to "keep" for 2011.

Matt Wieters
Derrek Lee
Dan Uggla
Aramis Ramirez
Jhonny Peralta
Gaby Sanchez
Jayson Werth
Nick Markakis
Jason Heyward
Colby Rasmus
J.D. Drew
Lyle Overbay
Adrian Beltre
Adam Jones
Adam LaRoche
Alfonso Soriano
Jeff Keppinger
John Jaso
Dan Haren
Ted Lilly
Jonathan Papelbon
Neftali Feliz
Luke Gregerson
Heath Bell

I am inclined to keep Haren as I think his relatively high ERA this year was an outlier. His strikeouts were good and he was durable. I'm also inclined to keep Jayson Werth, as he seems pretty consistent from year to year at this point, although what team he goes to in the offseason will influence my choice. I really doubt Beltre repeats what he did this season next year, after somebody gives him a large contract. I have to keep Jason Heyward and I'm inclined to keep Colby Rasmus as well, given his production level and his age.

So right now four of the five I would keep would be:

Dan Haren
Jayson Werth
Jason Heyward
Colby Rasmus

For the fifth, I would probably keep one of the following: Adrian Beltre, Neftali Feliz, Heath Bell, Jonathan Papelbon, or Matt Wieters. At this point I don't expect Wieters to ever reach his potential but I should still keep him in the mix heading into the offseason, I think.

[bostontricky]

Second place, $800. Epic fail by my pitching staff over the last six weeks (including a grand total of five wins over the last four; two more wins would have scored me a tie for the championship). If I ever get to meet James Shields in person, I'm going to break his nose.

I did get to make some crafty moves the last couple of pickups (none that hurt, except I should have dropped Shields instead of Danks), so going ahead I get to keep seven with a $127 budget, and don't have to declare until March.

Assuming the two relievers wind up closing, you could probably make an argument for any of those guys except Shields and Hunter; Crawford is probably out of my price range.

Let the trading begin. Orders to Cadence, DMG, Mosaic, and Amazon Japan to commence shortly.

C (open)
1B $4 Konerko
2B $5 Lowrie
3B $5 Bautista
SS $5 Scutaro
OF $37 Crawford
OF $17 Pierre
OF $5 Wells
OF $17 Hunter

SP $22 Garza
SP $19 Shields
SP $5 Marcum
SP $4 Morrow
SP $1 Blackburn
RP $9 M. Gonzalez
RP $6 K. Wood

[bostontricky]

David, maybe you could find the gullible Red Sox fan in your league: I see no reason besides being a year older why Beltre couldn't hit like this again if he re-signs with Boston. Could you cadge a keeper off someone for a flashy object? How long do you have to make moves? Or is the nature of this kind of league that it's pretty apparent everyone has five keepers, and there's no offseason action?

- - - -

Adding Insult to Injury Dept:
1) It is pointed out to me that if I had dropped Shields instead of Danks to pick up Blackburn, I would have won outright.

2) The Cecil Taylor Berlin '88 discs on FMP are all out of print, apparently a recent development? At least the Brits and Swedes will gain something from this...

3) And all the young women in the office are wearing sweaters today. In the bleak midwinter, indeed.

[bostontricky]

Time to dust off the thread, what with our draft coming up on Sunday and all. We're going a week earlier than usual - our office is moving the following weekend, and the facilities manager and both IT guys are owners. The adjustment was made to have a two-round pickup on Opening Day in case drafted players get sent down; we'll see if this leads to rampant speculation.

Earlier (deleted) keeper question answered itself: going into the draft with $68 for 9 players. Same idea as last year, except I have more offense, fewer players up the middle (having Napoli at $3 was huge last year), less pitching. We shall see.

Two decent pitchers, punt saves (as always), spackle the offense.

C
1B $4 Konerko
2B
3B $5 Bautista
SS
OF $17 Pierre
OF $5 V Wells
OF
DH $19 Butler

SP
SP
SP $4 Morrow
SP $5 Cecil
RP
RP
RP

[crawjo]

Had my draft last night. I don't think I'll win the league but I'm excited for my team. My five keepers were Dan Haren, Jason Heyward, Colby Rasmus, Neftali Feliz, and Matt Wieters. (I'm giving Wieters one more season to live up to some of the hype.)

I focused my draft on getting young players with significant upside, because I need better keepers. This is my roster as of right now:

C Matt Wieters
1B Billy Butler, Derrek Lee, Justin Smoak
2B Brian Roberts
3B Scott Rolen, Chipper Jones, Mike Moustakas
SS Jimmy Rollins
OF Colby Rasmus, Jason Heyward, Nick Markakis, J.D. Drew
DH David Ortiz

SP Dan Haren, Jeremy Hellickson, Brandon Morrow, Madison Bumgarner, Javier Vazquez
RP Neftali Feliz, Drew Storen, Rafael Soriano, Chris Sale, Koji Uehara

I got almost all the young guys I targeted prior to the draft. The one I didn't get was Freddie Freeman, who I almost took in one of the early rounds but decided instead that I should try to steal him late. But I waited too long. I also wanted to get Juan Pierre late so I wouldn't get blown out in stolen bases like I do every year, but I waited one round too long for that as well. Otherwise, though, I was happy with this draft.