NBA Playoffs 2016

[The G Man]

Pluto on how the Warriors were built:

http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ss ... n_sta.html

SqDCS is encouraged to comment on the accuracy.

It's a good and accurate piece overall. Some points he missed:
Getting David Lee in 2010. He's not part of the present team, and his minutes shrunk as Green continued to prove himself. But he was important in last year's playoffs and during his years here he was a key to the development of a competitive mind-set on the team.
Hiring Mike Malone as assistant coach in 2011 was a key piece. Jackson was head coach, but Malone was charged with getting the defense together, and the focus and schemes that are at the heart of the current team's defense were forged then. In 2012 he was named the best assistant coach in the league. (Malone is currently head coach of the Nuggets). Ron Adams replacing him as a defensive specialist continues the focus on D.
Getting Iguodala has obviously been huge, but the backstory on that goes back to the playoff series with Denver in 2013, Curry's ankle are suspect, and George Karl instructs his team to work Steph's ankles. Andre objects and the story comes out publicly. Followed the Dubs' upset of the of Nuggets, Andre tells Steph he'd like to play alongside of him, and that summer they get the deal done.
The biggest mystery about this team is how its big three all improved so much. All of them have wildly exceeded the expectations they came with on draft day. Some of this is character and work ethic, some talent that was still blossoming, some intelligence plus time . . . but you have to think that some of it is the culture of the team and the resources it brings to allow the players to continue developing.
And part of it is not hiring fools and dumping them when you realize that you have. (No names!)

He also missed the Dubs getting lucky by signing Curry way below the max just before he became a durable superstar.
A few years ago, Haralabob quipped on Twitter, "The Warriors are one David Lee injury away from becoming a great team." That turned out to be prescient because Lee, who had been starting over Green, got injured, lost his job and voila!

You make a great point about Curry, Klay and Draymond all showing incredible improvement from the beginning of their careers and all expectations to where they are today. Too bad, that hasn't happened to Barnes or Ezeli (yet).

I've been an Igoudala fan his entire career. He's a great cog who was underappreciated by Philly fans because he doesn't have the offensive ability to be the #1 star.

[Captain Hate]

For all the complaints about the inconsistency of Barnes, that's exactly the way he played in college and expecting that to change on top of others exceeding expectations is extremely unrealistic. He's probably at his max value in the Death lineup and if he goes somewhere else for a huge contract the fans will be up in arms early in the first season.

[SqDanceCallingSteve]

Or he can learn to be less of a fuckhead on the floor.

He has apologized to the team for missing the game. But he plays so intensely he's kind of always close to the edge, which is why he goes over it so often. As was noted earlier, he went off on Kerr during one halftime, when the coach told him to rein in his 3s during a slump. Again, later apologized. The team's mindset is that it's part of his nature, you take the good with the bad. So far, the balance has been overwhelmingly to the good, although the current situation could change that. The assumption is that time and consequences will come to restrain him.

off the floor too, this is fine if he backs it up but not sure CLE needs even more motivation in their own building:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/16232 ... -suspended

It'll get the crowd booing. Draymond, like LeBron, often does his best in the most hostile environments.

[SqDanceCallingSteve]

Of the 32 teams who have been down 3-1 in the NBA Finals, only two have forced a Game #7, the Knicks in '51 and the Lakers in '66, both losing in Game #7.

Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post:
>>In Game 5 against the Cavs, the Warriors created 19 wide-open three-point shots, 21.6 percent of their total attempts...By the end of the game, the Warriors were 4 of 19 on wide-open three-point shots alone, a woeful 21.1 percent success rate. We would expect this kind of performance or worse from Golden State once every 24 games, and it just so happened to occur in their 22nd game of the playoffs.

With this clunker out of the way . . . <<

[The G Man]

Of the 32 teams who have been down 3-1 in the NBA Finals, only two have forced a Game #7, the Knicks in '51 and the Lakers in '66, both losing in Game #7.

Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post:
>>In Game 5 against the Cavs, the Warriors created 19 wide-open three-point shots, 21.6 percent of their total attempts...By the end of the game, the Warriors were 4 of 19 on wide-open three-point shots alone, a woeful 21.1 percent success rate. We would expect this kind of performance or worse from Golden State once every 24 games, and it just so happened to occur in their 22nd game of the playoffs.

With this clunker out of the way . . . <<

Yes, as JVG says, "It's a make or miss league," meaning that the winning team is often the one that shot better than expected, given the difficulty level of their shots compared to their opponent.
No, there isn't a real 'law of averages". GS has a 1/24 chance of having a 1/24 chance outlier tonight.

SportVU data has enabled data analysts to actually compare shots made to expected shots made. That might make the box scores in the near future.

[The G Man]

Of the 32 teams who have been down 3-1 in the NBA Finals, only two have forced a Game #7, the Knicks in '51 and the Lakers in '66, both losing in Game #7.

The Cavs are given a 21% chance to win the series, per Betfair and Bovada.

[Enforcer]

I can't think of an instance where a team loses and the player from the losing team talks shit and it helps them in the next game.

[Enforcer]

Of the 32 teams who have been down 3-1 in the NBA Finals, only two have forced a Game #7, the Knicks in '51 and the Lakers in '66, both losing in Game #7.

The Cavs are given a 21% chance to win the series, per Betfair and Bovada.

I don't see the value in limiting the results to the Finals. Seems like an artificial filtering that just limits the data set. I can see how the lopsidedness of the first round matchups might introduce noise, but the two conferences are not equal, either.

[SqDanceCallingSteve]

Cavs reportedly wanted Draymond out for two games: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2646 ... =editorial

[jon abbey]

Of the 32 teams who have been down 3-1 in the NBA Finals, only two have forced a Game #7, the Knicks in '51 and the Lakers in '66, both losing in Game #7.

The Cavs are given a 21% chance to win the series, per Betfair and Bovada.

I don't see the value in limiting the results to the Finals. Seems like an artificial filtering that just limits the data set. I can see how the lopsidedness of the first round matchups might introduce noise, but the two conferences are not equal, either.

I'm ok with limiting it to the Finals, but you can't lump in series where a team is up 3-1 with 2 home games left to series where a team is up 3-1 with 1 home game left.

[Enforcer]

Yes, those are two different things.

I guess I'm also kind of bored with the forecasting models. I mean, outside of gambling, telling me that a team has a 21% chance of winning one game is not especially useful.

[Noj]

Boring game. The Warriors played horrible. I think the Cavs have them figured out.

[Harold Baines]

It was worth it to see Curry bitch out.

[jon abbey]

They need a healthy Iguodala and they need Barnes to be not historically awful.

also that is what happens when the refs try to control the game by calling the fouls they should (and some they shouldn't), let the players decide it.

[Enforcer]

If the Warriors lose game 7, they will have lost as many games in the playoffs (9) as they did during the 82-game regular season.

[The G Man]

If the Warriors lose game 7, they will have lost as many games in the playoffs (9) as they did during the 82-game regular season.

That's interesting. They aren't the same team they were back then. MVP Curry has been replaced by 2013 Curry.

[The G Man]

They need a healthy Iguodala and they need Barnes to be not historically awful.

also that is what happens when the refs try to control the game by calling the fouls they should (and some they shouldn't), let the players decide it.

Scott Foster is the worst crew chief in the league. At least he won't do game seven.

[walto]

They need a healthy Iguodala and they need Barnes to be not historically awful.

also that is what happens when the refs try to control the game by calling the fouls they should (and some they shouldn't), let the players decide it.

I firgured GS would win easily with Green back, but a cynical friend of mine at work said the refs wouldn't let that happen and that i'd know when two quick fouls were called on some star in the first 5 minutes of the first period. Curry definitely got jobbed throughout the game.

Amazing how differently one game is called from the next. Ah well--at least we get a game 7, and at a reasonable hour!

PS: I have nothing against Craig Sager and I wish him well, but the 3 hour blow job was a bit hard to take. I mean other than his illness and wearing silly clothes, is there something we should know?

[Captain Hate]

Sager seems to be well liked by the players and coaches, particularly Pop, but sideline reporters rarely add a single positive thing to a telecast and have often been absolute idiots like Pat O'brien and Jim Grey.

Ayisha Curry needs to join Magic in staying off Twitter forever.

[Enforcer]

Amazing how differently one game is called from the next.

My position hasn't wavered on this since 2006: Officiating decides NBA playoff series. When the teams are relatively evenly-matched, the officiating is the biggest determining factor in which team wins.